politics
Trump administration underestimated Iran war's impact on Strait of Hormuz
The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
TL;DR
- The Pentagon and National Security Council underestimated Iran's willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes.
- President Trump's national security team failed to fully account for the potential consequences of closing the strait.
- Interagency debate over potential economic fallout was sidelined due to Trump's preference for a tight circle of advisers.
- Efforts to alleviate economic fallout, including naval escorts, may take weeks to take hold and are currently considered too dangerous by the Pentagon.
- Officials acknowledged in classified briefings that they did not plan for Iran closing the strait, believing it would hurt Iran more.
- Shipping industry executives have requested military escorts, but these have been rebuffed due to high risks.
- New Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated the strait would remain closed as a 'tool of pressure'.
- The administration is considering measures to ease rising gas prices, including temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil and potentially waiving the Jones Act.