Analysis: Seven reasons why Trump hasn’t won the Iran war

TL;DR

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a major choke point for oil exportation and presents a military conundrum for the US.
The war has led to increased costs, including the loss of a US tanker aircraft and potential domestic blowback incidents in Virginia and Michigan.
While US-Israeli air assaults may have degraded Iran's military capabilities, the situation is dynamic and difficult to judge in real-time.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis, with its impact on oil prices and the reluctance of the US Navy to enter the waterway, lacks a clear military solution, pointing to a need for a political resolution.
The potential succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by his son raises questions about regime change goals and could be framed as a tactical failure.
There is no certainty that Israel would agree to end the war if Trump wished to, indicating potential divergence in strategic goals.
Trump's claims of having "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program are challenged by the continued presence of highly enriched uranium, leaving open the possibility of future restarts.

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