tech
Google’s new hurricane model was breathtakingly good this season
Meanwhile, the US Global Forecasting System continues to get worse.
TL;DR
- Google DeepMind's AI forecasting service performed exceptionally well in the Atlantic hurricane season.
- The US National Weather Service's Global Forecast System (GFS) model performed poorly.
- Preliminary data shows Google's AI model had half the error of the GFS model at five days.
- Google's AI model also beat official and consensus forecasts.
- DeepMind also excelled at hurricane intensity forecasting.
- AI models can produce forecasts more quickly and learn from mistakes.
- The poor performance of the GFS model this season is unexplained, possibly related to data collection lapses or a failed upgrade.