politics
Analysis: Why the US and Iran are fighting two different wars
President Donald Trump’s top aides are already scripting a victory narrative in Iran for the inevitable day when he tries to extricate himself from the war.
TL;DR
- Trump's aides are scripting a victory narrative for the Iran war, planning to certify an unconditional surrender.
- Iran's objective is to outlast US tolerance for the conflict, clashing with the US narrative.
- Middle Eastern history indicates violence doesn't easily end, and each war can fuel future grievances.
- US conflicts often defy exit strategies and rarely result in unequivocal victories.
- The war's threat to global economic stability and Trump's political position increase the urgency to find an exit.
- The conflict undermines Trump's vow to start no new wars, a promise carried by many US service members.
- Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth frames the war as a decisive, lethal display of US force, not nation-building.
- Trump has struggled to articulate a clear war rationale, shifting between threats of destruction and possibilities for deals.
- White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt clarified Trump's 'unconditional surrender' means Iran will no longer pose a direct threat.
- The article suggests a potential US victory in crippling Iran's infrastructure, even if the regime survives.
- Iran may define victory as survival, contrasting with a potential US claim of total defeat.
- The US relies on superior firepower, while adversaries like Iran adapt with asymmetric warfare and endurance.
- Iran could respond with continued missile strikes, proxy actions, or by disrupting oil exports.
- Historical precedents like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan show adversaries enduring against US military might.
- Trump faces a dilemma: manufacture a false victory or get drawn deeper into the conflict.