politics
The US just took out two China-friendly leaders in two months. Why has Beijing done very little about it?
In quick succession, US President Donald Trump has taken out two of Beijing’s closest allies: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
TL;DR
- The US has targeted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, both close allies of China.
- China has responded with anger and condemnation but minimal practical action, prioritizing its relationship with the US and its own stability.
- Iran's strategic importance to China is viewed as less critical than maintaining stable relations with the US, particularly ahead of a summit.
- China may welcome the diversion of US military resources away from the Indo-Pacific region.
- While China is a major buyer of Iranian oil, its military cooperation and trade/investment with Iran are less significant than with some Gulf states.
- China prefers to maintain balanced ties across the Middle East and avoid heightening tensions with the US over Iran.
- China has historically provided significant diplomatic and economic support to Iran, including denouncing US sanctions and supporting its nuclear program.
- Chinese firms have supplied materials for Iran's missile program and surveillance infrastructure.
- China generally avoids direct involvement in partners' conflicts and does not present itself as a security guarantor.
- China seeks to balance its ties with Iran and its rival, Saudi Arabia, even brokering a rapprochement between them.
- Concerns exist in Washington about strengthening ties between China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea.
- The limited support China has offered Iran during recent attacks raises questions about its reliability as a partner.
- The US involvement in Iran could divert resources, potentially creating opportunities for China in the Indo-Pacific.
- Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil to China, pose a significant concern.
- China has substantial onshore crude inventories that could buffer against immediate supply shocks.
- China is likely to use US intervention in Iran to promote its image as a champion of non-interference against a hegemonic US.